Stewardship of a Value Investor

Stockbit Post: Down in the Valley

recently, banyak yang nanya saya tentang kondisi IHSG saat ini. Mungkin banyak yang ingat saya sebagai seorang yang bearish. Well, I am still bearish, walaupun tahun ini ada beberapa saham yang cukup menarik.

Sebelumnya, let’s see kondisi makro IHSG. Jokowi banyak melakukan perubahan, dan untuk hal itu, saya yakin sekali, apa yang sedang ditanam beliau, akan berhasil, namun beliau adalah seseorang yang cukup sabar. And as investor, even if you are investing at this level, you will do alright if you have the capacity to suffer for the next 5 years. However, it will be rough. Dari segi plus, banyak dana tax amnesty yang akan mengenjot perekonomian, tapi menurut saya, efeknya ke IHSG tidak akan terlalu kencang.

Seperti tulisan saya sebelumnya, banyak porsi investor IHSG yang selama ini kita anggap sebagai dana ‘asing’, sebenarnya adalah milik investor dalam negeri. Dengan adanya tax amnesty, banyak investor asing akan di uncover sebagai domestik. Itulah alasan saya tidak terlalu memerhatikan foreign inflow/netflow. Namun tax amnesty akan memberikan dampak luar biasa di sektor riil. Dana yang selama ini tersembunyi akan tersedia untuk investasi. Bila ini terjadi, maka akan mendongkrak perekonomian yang lesu. Namun, banyak orang take if for granted in two ways.

First, if this really happens, it will not show its result overnight. Seperti kasus pemerintah, investasi akan memerlukan waktu supaya hasilnya terlihat. Jadi ini factor dari segi time horizon.

Second factor adalah factor opportunity cost. Dana yang masuk tidak berimplikasi langsung pada naiknya investasi. Bila opportunity cost is low, maka pemilik dana bisa saja ‘hoarding’, sehingga dana akan mengendap di sistem bank untuk sementara waktu. Dana yang dideklarasi akan di simpan. Kenapa saya melihat ini sebagai kemungkinan? Karena pada saat ini tingkat inflasi cukup rendah. Jadi tingkat suku bunga yang rendah tidak cukup memberikan insentif buat pemilik modal. Tentu saja environment skarang berbeda dengan dahulu di mana tingkat inflasi yang tinggi membuat para pemilik modal untuk berpacu untuk deploy dananya. So, dari faktor big picture, kesimpulannya you need to have a capacity to suffer as a long term investor. However, you will be all right if you adhere to discipline.

Kalau dari segi micro, bottoms-up view. Saya tahun ini menambah weighting di $BBRI, $PANS, $MPMX. Pada saat yang sama, saya menambah posisi baru di $PTBA, $ROTI. Untuk perbankan, saya agak berhati-hati, karena faktor macro sangat tidak mendukung sektor keuangan. We are at the peak, and good news have ran out. Namun, saya rasak risk/reward ratio dan kualitas compounder yang diberikan $BBRI cukup attractive dan membuat saya menambahkan posisi saya. Kalo $PANS, tidak usa ditanya lagi. It is an index stock for me. Untuk sector perkapalan/offshore, dengan berat hati, saya menyarankan untuk sangat berhati2. Walaupun saya cukup suka dengan $MBSS dan juga governance $WINS, saya masih was-was. That’s it.

Semoga sharing tengah malam saya cukup bermanfaat.

Flog Meetup v1

Hola! We will have our first meetup in Jakarta! We will have lunch together at 17 August 2015 (Happy independence day!) at Central Park Mall. Come and let’s have great discussion among value investors and people who want to learn. I will share some of my experience and moderate the discussion. If you want to attend, please follow the instruction at Sorry for the late announcement! Hope to see you!

Midyear 2015 Update

I have been thinking quite sometimes now. I just finished Maggie Mahar’s “Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust”. I recommend my reader to read it as it really helps my thinking a lot. With the current condition of Indonesian economy, I want to inform my reader that I am officially bearish now. There are some points that summarize my thought: Read More…

Are Coal Indonesian Companies Dirt Cheap Now?

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Some people asked me about entering $PTBA. I used to have a very positive view of this company, and i still have my notebook, where I wrote that I will seriously consider $PTBA at Rp.7,000 and $ITMG at Rp.18,000. However, my recent study has caused me to change my rosy view on the whole sector. Read More…

Stockbit Post: Foreign Affair

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Hm, kalo dana EM maksud anda pemain asing yang menarik dana, saya kira pengaruhnya tidak begitu besar. Sejauh ini, pemain yang direfer sebagai “asing” bisa dikategorikan:

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StockBit Post: Score Keeping

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Uda telat 2 hari neh. Anyway, since gw di summon, (again, gw masih ga pantas di panggil suhu), to answer the question, average $AMAG saya cukup rendah, tapi tidak adil kalau hanya melihat di satu posisi saja. Gw lagi nulis post tentang bagaimana cara menghitung performance. I will update it later. Read More…

2014 in Review: What is the price of our soul?

If 2013 was a good year, then 2014 can be described as total disappointment. We realize that this is a not a good opening for a letter. It does sound depressing. However, that is the reality of how we are doing in 2014. On brighter note, it is a year that teaches us about contentment, gratitude and humility. Read More…

WINS: Solid Ship with Solid Captain on Rough Sea

Those who have been talking to me for the last 2 years will be familiar with this company. Even my wife (at that time my girlfriend/fiancee), my father, and my father-in-law are tired listening to me about this company. As you will read later, there are a lot of learning for myself in this company; along with CPGT, WINS has been the highlight of my 2014 journey.

WINS is a shipping company that mainly serves offshore market. It is like a contractor company such as TOTL and heavy-equipment operator, only it operates on water, not on ground. Its main income can be derived by two sources: charter income from owned ship and brokerage. For the past few years, WINS has been focusing on purchasing its own ships and moving up to operate bigger and specialized vessels. This will expand the company’s margin.

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Oil: Greasy and Cheap

I am now used to the barrage of news reporting about the current condition of oil price. For the last few weeks, this topic has been featured in the Economist, CNN, businessweek, bloomberg, blogosphere, you name it. However, I don’t see many people cover it in connection to Indonesia investment landscape. In this post, I will try to put together my back-of-the-envelope thinking. Hopefully, it will stimulate further thoughts of yours. :)

Most of the news that we see everyday are not really important enough to pay attention to. You can miss them and it won’t kill your investment portfolio. Some of the examples are news such as “Foreign are buying, IHSG up 80 points” and “Market is out of gas, correction is due.” A lot of this kind of news are the type that the market wants to go up, therefore it is going up type of news. It sounds smart, but there is no meaningful content. Blame it on the media which cares about the excitement to generate more readership. Sometimes I find it amusing that people like to give the market a personality. It seems that the market, which is actually an index of group of stocks, has life by itself. However, the dropping of the oil price is not one of those news. It has some implications to how business will perform. Anyway, it’s just an interlude.

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On Counting the Curses

In my investor journey, one of the bad habit that I frequently do is to look at my watchlist, focus on some stocks that I might want to buy, and say, “If only I have bought X at X price, I would have made X amount of money.” Or sometimes I would say, “If only I have bought this share at this point, and sell at this point, I should have made this X amount of money.”
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