Stewardship of a Value Investor

Flog Meetup v1

Hola! We will have our first meetup in Jakarta! We will have lunch together at 17 August 2015 (Happy independence day!) at Central Park Mall. Come and let’s have great discussion among value investors and people who want to learn. I will share some of my experience and moderate the discussion. If you want to attend, please follow the instruction at Sorry for the late announcement! Hope to see you!

Midyear 2015 Update

I have been thinking quite sometimes now. I just finished Maggie Mahar’s “Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust”. I recommend my reader to read it as it really helps my thinking a lot. With the current condition of Indonesian economy, I want to inform my reader that I am officially bearish now. There are some points that summarize my thought: Read More…

Are Coal Indonesian Companies Dirt Cheap Now?

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Some people asked me about entering $PTBA. I used to have a very positive view of this company, and i still have my notebook, where I wrote that I will seriously consider $PTBA

at Rp.7,000 and $ITMG at Rp.18,000. However, my recent study has caused me to change my rosy view on the whole sector. Read More…

Stockbit Post: Foreign Affair

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Hm, kalo dana EM maksud anda pemain asing yang menarik dana, saya kira pengaruhnya tidak begitu besar. Sejauh ini, pemain yang direfer sebagai “asing” bisa dikategorikan:

Read More…

StockBit Post: Score Keeping

<This post is published at, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Uda telat 2 hari neh. Anyway, since gw di summon, (again, gw masih ga pantas di panggil suhu), to answer the question, average $AMAG saya cukup rendah, tapi tidak adil kalau hanya melihat di satu posisi saja. Gw lagi nulis post tentang bagaimana cara menghitung performance. I will update it later. Read More…

2014 in Review: What is the price of our soul?

If 2013 was a good year, then 2014 can be described as total disappointment. We realize that this is a not a good opening for a letter. It does sound depressing. However, that is the reality of how we are doing in 2014. On brighter note, it is a year that teaches us about contentment, gratitude and humility. Read More…

WINS: Solid Ship with Solid Captain on Rough Sea

Those who have been talking to me for the last 2 years will be familiar with this company. Even my wife (at that time my girlfriend/fiancee), my father, and my father-in-law are tired listening to me about this company. As you will read later, there are a lot of learning for myself in this company; along with CPGT, WINS has been the highlight of my 2014 journey.

WINS is a shipping company that mainly serves offshore market. It is like a contractor company such as TOTL and heavy-equipment operator, only it operates on water, not on ground. Its main income can be derived by two sources: charter income from owned ship and brokerage. For the past few years, WINS has been focusing on purchasing its own ships and moving up to operate bigger and specialized vessels. This will expand the company’s margin.

Read More…

Oil: Greasy and Cheap

I am now used to the barrage of news reporting about the current condition of oil price. For the last few weeks, this topic has been featured in the Economist, CNN, businessweek, bloomberg, blogosphere, you name it. However, I don’t see many people cover it in connection to Indonesia investment landscape. In this post, I will try to put together my back-of-the-envelope thinking. Hopefully, it will stimulate further thoughts of yours. :)

Most of the news that we see everyday are not really important enough to pay attention to. You can miss them and it won’t kill your investment portfolio. Some of the examples are news such as “Foreign are buying, IHSG up 80 points” and “Market is out of gas, correction is due.” A lot of this kind of news are the type that the market wants to go up, therefore it is going up type of news. It sounds smart, but there is no meaningful content. Blame it on the media which cares about the excitement to generate more readership. Sometimes I find it amusing that people like to give the market a personality. It seems that the market, which is actually an index of group of stocks, has life by itself. However, the dropping of the oil price is not one of those news. It has some implications to how business will perform. Anyway, it’s just an interlude.

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On Counting the Curses

In my investor journey, one of the bad habit that I frequently do is to look at my watchlist, focus on some stocks that I might want to buy, and say, “If only I have bought X at X price, I would have made X amount of money.” Or sometimes I would say, “If only I have bought this share at this point, and sell at this point, I should have made this X amount of money.”
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BWPT: The Great Dilution

Yesterday, the news headline was BWPT’s dilution by the Rajawali Group. As usual, share that performs badly goes into my radar. It occupied yesterday’s worst performance list and as of now, it is also hovering around the same place. Is this another case of maximum pessimism? Or is the fear of investors justified? I did a very rough (emphasis: ROUGH) calculation on what the share value is as of now, with few big assumption.

Read More…