I posted this in the mailing list in May 2013. Almost a year passed since then.

 

My thought on HRUM.
Sekadar pemikiran saya dari sisi investor long term.

Saya dulu berpikir bahwa HRUM adalah value-buy, tapi setelah mengecek lebih dalam awal tahun ini, berikut ringkasan pemikiran saya:

1. cadangan HRUM vs. ITMG: 106M vs. 550M

HRUM: 106M
ITMG: 550M
PTBA: 2,000M
ADRO: 1,000M

2. Produksi 2012
HRUM: 12M
ITMG: 27M
PTBA: 16M
ADRO: 47M

3. With those two pieces of information:
– HRUM only have less than 10 years. Which means, at p/e ratio of 8.8, it leaves little room for earning. You can only extract another 8 years of earnings. That is assuming, the margin stays the same.
– At current coal price and prospect, I do not see much upside, that the margin will improve
– The management might be incentivized to reduce production, to extend the production years, however, this is not of the best interest of the shareholder, as operation cost is ongoing.

4. considering this information, there is not enough margin for value play. Assuming the earning stays the same, if I am going to buy this for value perspective, I will only buy this when it reach 2,000 for sufficient margin of safety.

Honestly, banyak saham yang menyediakan lebih banyak value daripada HRUM. Valuasi ITMG lebih mahal dari HRUM, tapi ITMG memiliki runway lebih lama drpd HRUM.
The only catalyst for HRUM, if they find more coal reserve, other than this, it will be a value-trap, or at most, speculating play.