<This post is published at Stockbit.com, where I regularly interact with other investors under the name ‘coolspot’>

Hm, kalo dana EM maksud anda pemain asing yang menarik dana, saya kira pengaruhnya tidak begitu besar. Sejauh ini, pemain yang direfer sebagai “asing” bisa dikategorikan:

1. Part of Index Fund: Orang2 seperti Vanguard atau MSCI yang harus membeli saham Indonesia karena mereka harus mirror index. Biasanya mereka hold lumayan lama, dan kalaupun ditarik, itu dikarena investor mereka menjual fund, jadi untuk rebalancing mereka harus jualan juga.
2. Foreign Value Investor: Group ini holding lumayan lama, mereka tidak begitu takut dengan risk currency karena biasanya mereka masuk karena sudah sangat murah, dan risk nya sudah diperhitungkan dalam margin of saftey (kecuali mereka screw up). I know a lot of them hedge their bet by shorting IDR or EIDO. Jadi outflow tidak dipengaruhi secara significant oleh mereka.
3. Trader: Group ini yang biasanya direfer sebagai bandar asing oleh orang kita. Sebenarnya, mereka tidak begitu besar, namun karena level aktifitas mereka yang kencang, maka mereka sering dicover media, dan banyak pemain saham di Indonesia terobsesif untuk mengetahui langkah selanjutnya. The truth is, they make mistake too, and they play with much bigger money which are not theirs. Apakah mereka akan cabut dari Indonesia? Saya kira tidak begitu. These people thrive in volatility, so they will still trade and continue to do business here. Even though they will come in and out at a fast pace. Mereka seperti seorang cowo yang suka meninggalkan istrinya, namun akan tetap balik lagi hanya untuk mencicipi tidur seranjang dengan istri tuanya ini. They will come back. 🙂
4. Investor Indonesia yang masuk dari asing: Well, investor yang tipe ini domisilinya di Indonesia, namun memiliki aset yang diparkir di luar. Mereka hidup di Indonesia dan sudah terbiasa dengan ketidakpastian di Indonesia. APakah mereka akan keluar? Saya rasa tidak. Malah dengan kabar tax amnesty, sepertinya ada kemungkinan duit ini bisa berubah status dari asing menjadi lokal. 🙂

I think most people overrated the role of foreign in our market. I can’t predict their attitude in the short term, but here is some of my thoughts, and you decide your conclusion:
1. IHSG is not equal to Indonesian economy. IHSG can be improved not only when foreign money comes in, but also when there is a greater participation of population to invest in local public company.
2. The percentage of people who invest is stil very low. It is more likely that the percentage will increase in future. In my opinion, the growth will be steady, even though there is a bumpy road along the way (people are not likely to invest in the down market).
3. Indonesia is growing, and is a young country. I can argue that we are as a country, a better place to live in 20 years ago than now. These young demographics move up, and they will have a better livelihood. If these people dont invest, their next generation will. And BEI is working hard to educate the market about investing.
4. Yes, there are thousands of reasons why Indonesia might go down. There are things such as war, riot, etc. If you are rich, then that is a perfect opportunity for you. If you are not as rich, you might lose your investment, that is why it is investment. You need to afford losing your investment. Then stock market might not be for you. Anyway, if war and riot happens, investment should not be in your thoughts. It should be in your wellbeing and your family’s. There are things that are more precious than stocks and bonds.

With this kind of information ,do I care about foreign flow? Nope. At least it is irrelevant with my investment time horizon. It might be relevant if you are a short term trader, but that is totally a different game that I have not skill at. And that requires knowing it accurately, which I found out long ago, is a game that I will lose in a high certainty.