Stewardship of a Value Investor

Midyear 2015 Update

I have been thinking quite sometimes now. I just finished Maggie Mahar’s “Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust”. I recommend my reader to read it as it really helps my thinking a lot. With the current condition of Indonesian economy, I want to inform my reader that I am officially bearish now. There are some points that summarize my thought: Read More…

Oil: Greasy and Cheap

I am now used to the barrage of news reporting about the current condition of oil price. For the last few weeks, this topic has been featured in the Economist, CNN, businessweek, bloomberg, blogosphere, you name it. However, I don’t see many people cover it in connection to Indonesia investment landscape. In this post, I will try to put together my back-of-the-envelope thinking. Hopefully, it will stimulate further thoughts of yours. 🙂

Most of the news that we see everyday are not really important enough to pay attention to. You can miss them and it won’t kill your investment portfolio. Some of the examples are news such as “Foreign are buying, IHSG up 80 points” and “Market is out of gas, correction is due.” A lot of this kind of news are the type that the market wants to go up, therefore it is going up type of news. It sounds smart, but there is no meaningful content. Blame it on the media which cares about the excitement to generate more readership. Sometimes I find it amusing that people like to give the market a personality. It seems that the market, which is actually an index of group of stocks, has life by itself. However, the dropping of the oil price is not one of those news. It has some implications to how business will perform. Anyway, it’s just an interlude.

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Ilusi Performa IHSG

Saudara-saudara sekalian, untuk anda yang menaruh uang anda di pasar modal Indonesia, maka anda sudah mendapatkan cuan yang gede. Coba perhatikan angka berikut.

IHSG per 08/02/2012 : 3988.699
IHSG per 08/02/2013: 4491.267
Total Return: 12.6% Read More…

Data Produksi China, Status Inflasi dan Prediksi Rupiah

Dalam posting saya sebelumnya, saya mengatakan bahwa salah satu faktor penting dalam menentukan arah pergerakan IHSG. Selain itu, dari sektor domestik, inflasi bulan lalu (setelah hiruk pikuk kenaikan UMR) akan memberikan gambaran tentang prospek laporan keuangan emiten di 2013. Selain itu, sikap BI terhadap rupiah juga akan mempengaruhi kondisi pasar. Read More…

Landscape Pasar Indonesia 2013

Tahun lalu merupakan tahun yang cukup membawa berkah bagi kebanyakan investor. Index pasar seperti IHSG, S&P, Dow Jones bahkan Straits Times Index yang nancap gas pada beberapa minggu terakhir, memberikan return positif. Pertanyaannya, bagaimana situasi pada tahun 2013? Apakah pasar Indonesia akan memberikan return lebih dari 50% seperti 3 tahun lalu, atau mandek seperti 2 tahun lalu? Apakah faktor-faktor yang harus diperhatikan? Read More…

Rupiah Semakin Melemah

Pada hari ini, BI memutuskan untuk mempertahankan BI Rate di level 5.75%. Keputusan ini sepertinya menandakan bahwa BI tidak mau mengambil resiko untuk merubah apa-apa. Read More…

Wary of the Market

Ketidak pastian pasar di waktu dekat ini, membuat saya agak was-was dalam mengambil tindakan. Pada saat ini ada beberapa hal yang cukup membuat saya kuatir: Read More…

Indonesian Coal Era is Over

Berhati-hatilah dengan saham resources!

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Kenaikan UMP Mendongkrak Inflasi, Ayo Beli Saham.. Um, Think again!

Saham, untuk hedging inflasi? Not so fast!

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